In this episode of Oregon D.O.G.E., Senators Daniel Bonham, Mike McLane, and Representative Werner Reschke break down the May 2025 economic forecast and expose a well-worn tactic in Salem: spend massively during growth years, then blame Washington D.C. when the bill comes due.
According to the state’s own numbers, Oregon’s general fund has more than doubled in the last decade, growing from $16 billion to over $33 billion. Personal income tax revenue alone has increased by $8 billion in just two years. And yet, the response from Oregon’s majority party is doom and gloom.
Here’s what they don’t want you to know.
1. The State Is Richer Than Ever — But Claims It’s Broke
The May forecast shows Oregon with more than $37 billion in available resources — yet lawmakers are already preparing the public for tax increases. Why? Because of a slight drop from a prior, overly optimistic projection — not actual revenue loss.
And while news headlines scream “budget shortfall,” the reality is clear: state revenue is still rising, just not as fast as some forecasts once predicted.
2. The Real Boogeyman Isn’t Trump — It’s Salem’s Spending
Governor Kotek and legislative Democrats have pointed fingers at Trump-era tariffs, blaming them for Oregon’s sluggish economic outlook. But the state’s own economist admits the data doesn’t show tariff impacts yet. In fact, Oregon’s budget woes are tied to:
- Overreliance on income taxes
- Record growth in non-essential programs
- Unsustainable short-session spending sprees
- Mission creep in nearly every state agency
The state even spent $1.3 billion more during the short session — spending that doesn’t count toward the taxpayer kicker.
3. Taxed More, Getting Less
Oregon workers pay 8.75% income tax starting at just $10,200 — one of the nation’s most aggressive brackets. And Portland residents earning over $400k? They pay the highest tax rate in the U.S., higher than even New York — until you earn $25M.
Yet with all this revenue:
- Schools aren’t improving
- Roads are crumbling
- Manufacturing is fleeing
- Public safety remains underfunded
Where is the money going?
4. Urban Doom Loop: A Warning for the Whole State
Portland’s collapse — from rising crime and homelessness to vanishing business investment — is becoming the model for failure. The team discusses “mission creep” and how it’s happening in agencies like ODOT, which now spends hundreds of millions on non-core programs due to legislative pet projects that never sunset.
5. Time for Accountability, Not Excuses
Oregonians are being set up. Despite massive budget growth, the narrative is being laid for:
- New transportation taxes
- Property tax hikes
- Targeted taxes on rural and small-town infrastructure
This episode makes one thing clear: we don’t have a revenue problem — we have a responsibility problem.