Oregon’s latest revenue forecast paints a picture that state leaders are desperately trying to spin — but the real story is impossible to ignore. In Episode 36 of Oregon D.O.G.E., Senator Mike McLane, Representative Shelly Boshart Davis, and Alex Lopez walk through the numbers, the warnings, and the alarming budget proposals coming out of state agencies.
For years, Oregon’s politicians have blamed everything on Washington, D.C. — tariffs, Trump, Congress, “uncertainty.” But this episode lays out the truth with data straight from Oregon’s own economists and agency heads:
Oregon’s crisis is Oregon-made.
Oregon’s Revenue Forecast: Flat Numbers, Deep Problems
The state economist reported a forecast that didn’t fall off a cliff — but the panel warns this is no victory lap. Beneath the surface:
- 25,000 private sector jobs lost
- Manufacturing decline labeled a “recession”
- Transportation, utilities, construction, financial activities — all down
- Portland metro still has not recovered its pre-COVID jobs
- Oregon’s GDP growth lags behind national averages
- Inflation sits around 3%, higher than the federal target
Even more troubling: Oregon’s estimated quarterly tax payments have fallen sharply. That means businesses expect lower profits, lower revenue, or both.
As McLane puts it:
Get ready. Choppy waters are coming.
The EV Money Problem: $70 Million for Rebates While Police and Schools Struggle
One of the most shocking revelations:
While legislators panic about budget cuts, the state is celebrating $70 million for EV rebates and electric infrastructure.
Republicans ask a simple question:
Why not shift that money to roads, public safety, or essential services?
The answer?
The Governor refuses to rethink the structure — even though the Legislature can redirect the statute.
This episode makes the case that Oregon doesn’t have a revenue problem — it has a priority problem.
Population Decline: Portland Has 29% Fewer Children Under Age 5
A jaw-dropping number from the state economist:
Portland’s population of children under age five has fallen 29% since 2005.
The panel connects the dots:
Families are leaving.
Affordability is collapsing.
Taxes continue rising.
And Oregon is now grouped with San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York — cities experiencing dramatic out-migration.
For a state that relies on future workforce and stable communities, this is a demographic time bomb.
The Job Loss Chart Oregon Hopes You Ignore
Oregon’s own forecast includes a devastating slide showing losses from August 2024 to August 2025:
- Manufacturing: –8,500 jobs
- Trade/Transport/Utilities: –7,100 jobs
- Professional & Business Services: –5,900 jobs
- Construction: –5,200 jobs
- Financial Activities: –1,600 jobs
Government jobs?
Down only 1,800 — after massive growth since 2020.
This means the backbone of Oregon’s economy is collapsing while government expands.
As Davis puts it bluntly:
Where’s the outrage on manufacturing jobs?
Budget-Cut Proposals: A Masterclass in Tantrums
Agencies were asked to prepare 2.5% and 5% cut scenarios. What came back is nothing short of political theater.
Oregon State Police
Proposed cuts include:
- Closing the Bend Forensic Lab
- Closing the Pendleton Forensic Lab
- Cutting troopers enforcing fish & wildlife laws
- Eliminating drug enforcement positions
Meanwhile, the Oregon Health Authority continues to spend $1.5 billion on Medicaid for undocumented individuals — with no federal reimbursement.
Department of Corrections
Proposed closure of the Eastern Oregon Correctional Institution, where nearly 46.5% of inmates are sex offenders.
The panel calls this “nuclear.”
Department of Education
Their first proposed cut?
FFA — Oregon’s widely recognized best youth leadership program.
Meanwhile:
- OSU Extension keeps its DEI program: $540,000
- PSU keeps its labor standards research program: $666,000
As the team notes:
This is how you make rural Oregon furious.
DEQ and Climate Programs
DEQ proposes minimal cuts to climate initiatives while maintaining large budgets for non-core programs — even as trooper positions are targeted.
Cybersecurity vs. DEI
Department of Administrative Services suggests cutting cybersecurity positions — before touching any of their 15 DEI & ‘Belonging’ positions funded at $7.5 million.
This episode asks:
Who benefits from these priorities? Because it’s not Oregonians.
The Path Forward
Oregonians are losing trust — and for good reason.
But the panel closes with determination:
Oregon can recover with the right leadership, realistic budgeting, and policies that reward productivity instead of punishing it.
Representative Davis ends with a message of hope:
Oregon is a beautiful state with incredible people — and we can turn this around.